Genocide Prevention in Rwanda and Abroad
Senior 6 · History (Languages)
Genocide Prevention in Rwanda and Abroad
Lesson 3 of 5
20 min
On 11 January 1994 the commander of the UN peacekeeping force in Rwanda, General Roméo Dallaire, sent a coded cable to UN headquarters in New York. An informant had told him that militias were being trained, that arms were hidden in Kigali, and that lists were being prepared. Dallaire asked for permission to seize the weapons. Headquarters told him not to raid the arms caches and to share the information with the President of Rwanda instead. Three months later the genocide began. The lesson historians draw is hard: the warning signs were seen and reported, but those with power did not act.
Definition
Risk factor: a condition that makes genocide more likely, usually over months or years, such as discrimination or impunity.
Early warning sign: a recent, concrete event that shows the risk is turning into action, such as militia training, hate broadcasts or arms distribution.
Early warning system: an organised way of collecting information on these signs and passing it to people who can act in time.
In 2014 the UN Office on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect published a Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes to help governments, the UN and civil society spot danger early. It lists eight risk factors common to all atrocity crimes and two specific to genocide.
Figure 1. No single factor predicts genocide. The more factors present together, and the stronger the signs of intent (factor 10), the higher the risk.
| Warning sign | Rwanda, 1990 to 1994 | Germany, 1933 to 1939 |
|---|---|---|
| Laws or policies that exclude a group | Quotas against Tutsi in schools and jobs; identity cards with group labels | Jews stripped of German citizenship by the Nuremberg Laws (1935) |
| Hate propaganda and dehumanising language | Kangura newspaper (from 1990); RTLM radio (from 1993) | State propaganda against Jews in press, film and schools |
| Armed groups outside the law | Training of Interahamwe militias from 1992 | The SA and SS acting as party armies |
| Unpunished attacks on the group | Massacres of Tutsi in 1990 to 1993 | The nationwide pogrom of November 1938 |
| Preparation | Lists of targets; arms caches reported in January 1994 | Registration and confiscation of Jewish property |
| Attacks on moderates and on the press | Threats against Hutu opposition politicians and journalists | Opposition parties banned and critics imprisoned (1933) |
Early warning only works if it reaches people who can act and if they choose to act. In 1994 the information existed, but the Security Council reduced the peacekeeping force in April instead of reinforcing it. Today the UN has a Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide (since 2004), and Rwanda's Ministry of National Unity and Civic Engagement (MINUBUMWE) has a department responsible for memory and genocide prevention, including strategies for prevention and a network against genocide denial.
Warning
Signs are not proof. A single hateful speech does not mean a genocide is coming, and labelling every tension as "pre-genocide" can itself inflame a situation. Look for patterns: several signs together, growing over time, especially signs of organisation and intent.
Tip
Slow and fast. Risk factors are slow conditions (years); warning signs are fast events (weeks or months). Exam answers that separate the two show understanding.
Important
Discuss. If you were a journalist, teacher or local leader, which early warning signs could you notice in your own community, and to whom would you report them?
Practice
Sources and credits
Written by Ganzaa: the diagram, the table, the analysis and the exercises.
