Genocide Prevention in Rwanda and Abroad
Senior 6 · History
Genocide Prevention in Rwanda and Abroad
Lesson 3 of 5
25 min
On 11 January 1994 the commander of the UN Assistance Mission for Rwanda (UNAMIR), the Canadian general Roméo Dallaire, sent a coded cable to UN headquarters in New York. An informant who trained the Interahamwe militia had told his officers that weapons were hidden in Kigali and that he had been ordered to make lists of Tutsi. Read the extract, then follow on Figure 3 what happened to the warning.
Important
Source B: from the cable of 11 January 1994, UNAMIR to UN headquarters (extract)
"Since UNAMIR mandate he has been ordered to register all Tutsi in Kigali. He suspects it is for their extermination."
Dallaire asked for permission to raid the hidden weapons within 36 hours. Headquarters refused: it told him to stay within the mission's mandate and to pass the information to President Habyarimana and to the ambassadors of Belgium, France and the United States. The weapons were not seized. An independent inquiry for the UN later concluded that the cable deserved far more attention than it received, and that the UN as a whole had failed to prevent the genocide or to stop it.
Cable text as quoted in the Report of the Independent Inquiry into the actions of the United Nations in 1994, UN document S/1999/1257, December 1999.
Figure 3. The early warning chain, and how it broke in 1994. Drawn by Ganzaa.
Definition
Early warning: collecting and analysing information about the risk of mass atrocities, and alerting those who can act, before the killing starts.
Risk factor: a condition that makes atrocity crimes more likely, such as a history of discrimination or the absence of independent courts.
Indicator (warning sign): a specific, observable sign that a risk factor is present or growing, such as a sudden rise in hate speech or the arming of a militia.
Trigger: an event that can turn high risk into violence, such as an election, a coup, or the death of a leader.
Warning–response gap: the distance between knowing about a danger and acting on it.
In 2014 the UN Office on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect published the Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes. It lists fourteen risk factors, each with indicators. Eight apply to all atrocity crimes; two are specific to genocide.
| Risk factor (UN Framework, 2014) | Examples of indicators | Seen in Rwanda before April 1994? |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Armed conflict or other instability | war, political crisis, economic collapse | yes: the war from October 1990; a falling coffee price |
| 2. Record of serious violations | past massacres, no reconciliation | yes: massacres of Tutsi since 1959 |
| 3. Weak state structures | courts and police not independent | yes: courts did not punish the massacres |
| 4. Motives or incentives | an ideology of exclusion; fear of losing power | yes: extremists opposed power-sharing under the Arusha Accords |
| 5. Capacity to commit atrocities | armed militias, weapons stocks | yes: Interahamwe; weapons distributed |
| 6. Absence of mitigating factors | no free media, weak outside presence | partly: a small UN force without a mandate to act |
| 7. Enabling circumstances or preparatory action | lists, hate media, emergency measures | yes: lists of names; RTLM broadcasts |
| 8. Triggering factors | the death of a leader, an election | yes: the shooting down of the president's plane on 6 April 1994 |
| 9. Intergroup tensions or discrimination (genocide-specific) | exclusion of a protected group | yes: identity cards, quotas |
| 10. Signs of an intent to destroy a group (genocide-specific) | speeches calling for a group's destruction; dehumanisation | yes: Kangura, RTLM, the Kabaya speech of 1992 |
Risk factors 11 to 14 are specific to crimes against humanity and war crimes. Other warnings were also given before the genocide: in 1993 an international commission of inquiry by human rights organisations, and a UN Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial executions, Bacre Waly Ndiaye, reported massacres of Tutsi and warned that they could fall under the Genocide Convention.
Warning
Warning is not the same as prevention. In 1994 the signs were seen and reported; what was missing was the decision to act. When you evaluate early warning, judge the whole chain in Figure 3, not only whether information existed.
Tip
Risk factor, indicator, trigger. Use these three words precisely: a risk factor is a condition (a history of massacres), an indicator is a sign you can observe (an armed militia being trained), and a trigger is an event that sets violence off (the death of a leader).
Important
Discuss. Today, hate speech spreads faster on social media than it did on RTLM. What early warning signs could a student in your school notice online, and what is the right way to respond?
UN Human Rights Council: "Early warning and prevention are critical components to prevent genocide" (5 March 2025, about 5 minutes). Virginia Gamba, then Acting Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on the Prevention of Genocide, speaks to the Council. List the steps she says turn warning into prevention, and compare them with Figure 3.
Practice
Sources and credits
Written by Ganzaa: the diagram (Figure 3), the analysis, the table and the exercises.
