Population in Rwanda
Senior 4 · Geography
Population in Rwanda
Lesson 1 of 4
25 min
On the night of 15 August 2022 every person in Rwanda was counted by the Fifth Population and Housing Census (RPHC5); enumerators visited households from 16 to 30 August. The result: 13,246,394 residents (NISR, 2023). Figure 1 puts this in the record of all five censuses.
Figure 1. Resident population at each census and the average annual growth rate between censuses. Data: NISR, RPHC5 Main Indicators Report, Table 4. The censuses are not equally spaced: 13, 11, 10 and 10 years apart.
Look at the growth rates. Why was growth so slow between 1991 and 2002? NISR explains it by "the high death toll of the 1990 war" and the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi. Why has growth slowed again since 2002, in peaceful years? To answer, we need the measures in this lesson.
Definition
Crude birth rate (CBR): live births in a year per 1,000 people. Crude death rate (CDR): deaths in a year per 1,000 people.
Rate of natural increase (RNI): , in % a year. Growth rate also includes migration: .
Total fertility rate (TFR): the average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime at current rates. Infant mortality rate (IMR): deaths before age 1 per 1,000 live births. Life expectancy at birth: the average number of years a newborn would live if today's death rates continued.
| Indicator | Earlier value | 2022 (RPHC5) |
|---|---|---|
| Crude birth rate | – | 27.8 per 1,000 (364,549 births in the year before the census) |
| Crude death rate | 17.1 per 1,000 (1978) | 6.3 per 1,000 |
| Total fertility rate | 8.6 children (1978); 6.9 (1991); 5.9 (2002) | 3.6 children (Kigali 3.0, Eastern Province 4.0) |
| Infant mortality rate | 49 per 1,000 (2012) | 28.9 per 1,000 live births |
| Under-five mortality rate | 72 per 1,000 (2012) | 40.8 per 1,000 live births |
| Life expectancy at birth | 46 years (1978); 64 (2012) | 69.6 years (males 67.7, females 71.2) |
| Average annual growth rate | 2.6% (2002–2012) | 2.3% (2012–2022) |
Source: NISR, RPHC5 Main Indicators Report (2023).
Figure 2. Life expectancy at birth at each census. Data: NISR (2023). The fall between 1991 and 2002 reflects the war and the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi.
Worked example 1: calculating the crude birth rate
Problem. The census recorded 364,549 births in the 12 months before the census, in a population of 13,246,394. Calculate the CBR.
Comment. NISR quotes 27.8 in its summary and a standardised rate of 27.4 in its tables. Small differences like this arise from which population is used (at the census date or at mid-year) and from adjustments to reported births. Quote the official figure and its source, but understand where it comes from.
Worked example 2: the growth rate between two censuses
Problem. Calculate the average annual growth rate between the 2012 census (10,515,973) and the 2022 census (13,246,394), and between 1991 (7,157,551) and 2002 (8,128,553).
Both match NISR's published 2.3% and 1.2%. Interpretation. Growth halved in 1991–2002 because of the war and the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi, and the deaths and displacement they caused. Since 2002 growth has fallen again, but now because women are having fewer children (TFR 5.9 → 3.6), while death rates also keep falling.
Worked example 3: what growth does NISR's projection assume?
Problem. NISR's medium projection is 23.6 million people in 2052. What average growth rate does this imply from 2022?
Interpretation. The projection assumes growth continues to slow, from 2.3% to an average of about 1.9%, mainly because fertility keeps falling. Yet the population still rises by over 10 million, because so many young people will enter their child-bearing years (lesson 3).
Warning
Rates are per 1,000, growth is per 100. A CBR of 27.8 and a CDR of 6.3 give a natural increase of per 1,000, which is 2.15%, not 21.5%. And the IMR is per 1,000 live births, not per 1,000 people.
Statistics Rwanda (NISR): "Rwanda Population and Housing Census 2022". The official presentation of the census results. Note three indicators from this lesson and the values NISR gives for them.
Practice
Key points
Sources and credits
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022: Main Indicators Report, National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), February 2023 (all population, fertility, mortality, growth and projection figures).
Figures 1 and 2 and the worked examples were drawn and written by Ganzaa from the NISR data.
Video: "Rwanda Population and Housing Census 2022", Statistics Rwanda, embedded from YouTube. The rest of the lesson and the exercises were written by Ganzaa.
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