Goals with Numbers: Listening to a Talk on NST2, and Debating Development Priorities

Good morning, everyone. I've been asked to talk about Rwanda's development plans, which sounds like the dullest subject on today's programme. I'll try to prove that it isn't, because these plans are about your future more than anyone else's.

Let's start with the long view. Vision 2050 sets two milestones: Rwanda aims to become an upper-middle-income country by 2035, and a high-income country by 2050. In 2035 most of you will be in your late twenties; in 2050 you'll be in your forties. So these are not dates in a distant history book. They're dates in your own lives.

A vision is a direction, not a plan. The plan comes in five-year strategies. The current one, NST2, runs from 2024 to 2029, and what I like about it is that its goals come with numbers. Let me give you four.

First, jobs. The strategy aims to create one and a quarter million productive jobs in five years. That's two hundred and fifty thousand a year, or, if you like, roughly one new job every two minutes, day and night, for five years.

Second, exports. In 2023 Rwanda earned about three and a half billion US dollars from selling goods and services abroad. The target is seven point three billion by 2029: more than double. That's why you'll hear so much about manufacturing, mining, tourism and agro-processing.

Third, savings. The plan aims to double the national savings rate, from twelve point four per cent of GDP to almost twenty-six per cent. A country that saves more can invest more of its own money, instead of borrowing it.

Fourth, and to me the most important: children. A third of children under five are stunted, and the target is to bring that down to fifteen per cent. That's more than halving it.

Now, why tell students all this? Because about sixty-five per cent of Rwandans are under thirty. If the jobs target is met, many of those jobs will be yours. If the export target is met, some of those exports will be things that you design, grow or sell. And if the targets are missed, you'll be the ones who notice first.

So my request is simple: read the plans for yourselves, check the numbers each year, and ask your leaders, politely and with evidence, how things are going. Thank you.