Population in Africa
Senior 3 · Geography
Population in Africa
Lesson 4 of 4
25 min
NISR's medium projection gives Rwanda about 23.6 million people by 2052, and a density of about 894 people per km², up from 501 in mid-2022. Over the same thirty years the urban population is projected to grow from 3.7 million to 16.5 million (Figure 5). Numbers like these are neither good nor bad in themselves: the question is whether land, jobs, schools, water and energy can grow as fast. This lesson brings together Africa's main population problems and the ways countries are tackling them.
Figure 5: Rwanda's population, 2022 and 2052 (NISR medium projection).
Definition
Overpopulation: more people in an area than its resources and technology can support at a decent standard of living. Underpopulation: too few people to use an area's resources fully, e.g. to run farms, services and industries efficiently. Both are judged against resources, not by numbers alone.
| Problem | What it looks like | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Pressure on land | Plots divided among children until too small; over-cultivation; farming on steep slopes and in wetlands | The densely settled highlands of Rwanda and Burundi; the Nile valley |
| Pressure on energy and forests | Firewood and charcoal cut faster than trees grow | In Rwanda 76% of households cook mainly with firewood (93% in rural areas) (NISR, 2022) |
| Unemployment | Many young people enter the labour market each year, faster than jobs are created | Large African cities such as Lagos, Kinshasa and Nairobi |
| High dependency | Many children per working adult (Lesson 1) | Rwanda's dependency ratio of about 71 in 2022 |
| Strain on services | Crowded classrooms and clinics; shortages of water and housing | Fast-growing towns everywhere |
| Rapid urban growth and slums | Unplanned settlements without roads, drains or sanitation (Unit 8) | Kibera in Nairobi; Makoko in Lagos |
| Food insecurity | Food production lagging behind population in drought years | The Sahel and the Horn of Africa |
| Disease | Malaria, HIV and water-borne diseases reduce the healthy workforce | Much of tropical Africa |
| Forced migration and refugees | Conflicts and droughts uproot millions | The DR Congo, South Sudan, Sudan, Somalia |
| Underpopulation | Too few people to develop large areas, high cost of services per person | Gabon, Namibia, parts of the Central African Republic |
Definition
Land fragmentation: the division of farmland into smaller and smaller plots, usually through inheritance. Land-use consolidation: farmers combining neighbouring plots to grow the same crop together, so that the land can be farmed and supplied more efficiently.
Worked example
Worked example 1: change in density. NISR projects Rwanda's density to rise from 501 to about 894 people per km² between mid-2022 and 2052. Calculate the percentage increase.
Worked example
Worked example 2: match problem and solution. A hillside sector has very small plots, steep fields and young people without work. Suggest one solution for each problem and justify it.
Warning
Don't blame numbers alone. A crowded country with good jobs and productive farms (the Netherlands) can prosper, while a thinly peopled one can be poor. In an exam, relate population to resources, technology and organisation.
Tip
Problem → cause → solution → example. Write each population problem as a four-part chain; it earns more marks than a list.
Practice
Further reading
Sources and credits
This lesson adapts CC BY-SA material and is shared under CC BY-SA 4.0.
